Equity Management Academy
Daily Market Letter – NQ U25

Date: July 21, 2025,
Prepared by: Patrick MontesDeOca
Target Audience: Market Analysts, Traders, and Investors

On July 18, the Nasdaq 100 E‑mini (NQ U25) extended its relentless climb, closing at 23,224 to mark fresh year‑to‑date highs. This latest advance underscores the contract’s robust uptrend, which has been firmly in place since mid‑April and remains supported by both moving averages and favorable cycle dynamics.

Drawing from our Gann Square‑of‑Nine framework, we anchored on the April 14 swing low at 16,500. From that base, the 45° projection around 20,750 first signaled the shift to bullish confirmation, and the 90° angle at approximately 23,300 neatly coincides with the recent peak. Looking further ahead, the 135° intersection near 25,850 emerges as our next major objective, while time cycles of 9, 18, 36, and 72 days have repeatedly lined up with price inflection points, validating the underlying rhythm.

Overlaying the VC PMI weekly pivot grid for July 14–18 provides clear reference levels for traders. The central pivot at 23,206 has functioned as equilibrium, while resistance at 23,363 and 23,501 brackets upside targets. On the downside, support at 23,068 and 22,911 offers defined retracement zones—most recently, the market found a foothold near S1 before resuming its ascent.

Price structure remains resolutely bullish, with the short‑term moving‑average stack (9 > 18 > 36 > 54 > 90 > 144 > 200‑day SMAs) all angling higher. The 9‑day SMA at 23,063 and the 18‑day at 22,902 now serve as immediate support thresholds. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands have widened, with the upper band at 23,521 capturing the current bullish momentum—and also hinting at potential overextension if the market becomes too extended in the coming days.

Momentum readings have paused slightly, as the MACD line (400.6) dips just below its 9‑period signal (410.2), producing a modestly negative histogram (–9.6). Importantly, this slowdown has been accompanied by lighter-than-average volume on the latest red-day pullback, suggesting limited distribution and reinforcing that buyers remain in control.

Looking ahead, we maintain a bullish bias so long as price holds above the 9‑day SMA (23,063). For traders seeking an entry, a pullback toward the confluence of the VC PMI S1 at 23,068 and the 9‑day SMA represents an attractive risk‑reward setup. Upside targets begin at R1 (23,363), extend to R2 (23,501), and ultimately converge on the upper Bollinger band (23,521). A daily close below 23,063 would challenge the short‑term bullish case and argue for deeper consolidation toward the 18‑day SMA.

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