GOLD: Weekly Standard Deviation Report
Date Published: October 25, 2024
Author: Patrick MontesDeOca

Market Analysis Summary

1. Weekly Trend Momentum
- Closing Price: The gold futures contract closed at $2755, which is above the 9-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $2645.
- Interpretation: The weekly trend momentum is confirmed as bullish. This indicates that, in the short term, the trend is upward as long as the price remains above the 9-day SMA.
- Neutral Trigger: If the price closes below the 9-day SMA ($2645), it would negate the bullish short-term trend, turning it to neutral.
2. Weekly Price Momentum
- VC PMI Level: The market closed above the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator (VC PMI) at $2750, confirming bullish price momentum.
- Neutral Trigger: A close below the VC PMI level ($2750) would neutralize the bullish momentum, suggesting that the price could shift toward a more balanced stance without a clear bullish bias.
3. Weekly Price Indicator for Profit-Taking and Stop Levels
- Support Zones for Short Positions: If the price declines, look to take profits on shorts around the $2727 to $2699 range. These levels act as support, where a price reversal may occur.
- Long Positions:
- Stop Level: Use $2699 as a weekly stop for long positions. A “Stop Close Only” (SCO) at this level means exiting long positions if the market closes below it.
- Profit Targets: If holding long positions, aim to take profits in the $2778 to $2801 range during the week. This zone is identified as a high-probability reversion level where the price may encounter resistance and potentially pull back.
4. Cycle Analysis
- Next Cycle Date: The next anticipated cycle date is October 30. This suggests that traders should be prepared for potential volatility or trend changes around this date, as cycles often mark turning points in market direction.
5. Strategy Summary
- For Short Positions:
- Profit-Taking Levels: Aim to take profits on any short positions if the price reaches the $2727 to $2699 range.
- For Long Positions:
- Entry Strategy: Hold or add to long positions while the price remains above the VC PMI level ($2750) and the 9-day SMA ($2645).
- Profit-Taking Levels: Target $2778 to $2801 for taking profits on long positions during the week, as this area is expected to serve as resistance.
- Risk Management: Place a weekly Stop Close Only order at $2699 for any long positions. This ensures that if the market closes below $2699, the long position will be exited.
This structured approach aligns with mean reversion principles and probabilities, allowing for tactical entries and exits based on momentum, price indicators, and cycle analysis. This plan ensures both risk management and opportunities to capture gains within the expected weekly price movement range.
Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. It is for educational purposes only.