GLOBAL TRENDS WEEKLY

Gold Market Analysis Report

Date: January 9, 2025,
Prepared by: Patrick MontesDeOca
Target Audience: Gold Market Analysts, Traders, and Investors

Refined Trading Strategy for Gold Futures (/GC)

1. Key Levels to Watch

  • Sell 2 Weekly: $2805.1
  • Sell 1 Weekly: $2758
  • VC PMI Daily (Pivot): $2712
  • Buy 1 Weekly: $2648
  • Buy 2 Weekly: $2582
  • Fibonacci Levels:
    • 61.8% Retracement: $2716.7 (currently acting as resistance).
    • 50% Retracement: $2692 (pivot zone aligning with VC PMI Weekly).

2. Bullish Scenario

  • Trigger: If price breaks and sustains above $2738 (Sell 1 Daily level):
    • Initial target: $2758 (Sell 1 Weekly).
    • Extended target: $2805.1 (Sell 2 Weekly).
  • Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss below $2712 (VC PMI Daily pivot).
  • Confirmation Signal: Look for increasing volume and a MACD bullish crossover to support the move.

3. Bearish Scenario

  • Trigger: If price breaks and sustains below $2690 (Buy 1 Daily level):
    • Initial target: $2672 (Buy 2 Daily level).
    • Extended target: $2648 (Buy 1 Weekly).
  • Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss above $2712 (VC PMI Daily pivot).
  • Confirmation Signal: Ensure MACD remains bearish (MACD line below the signal line) and volume spikes on the downside.

4. Neutral / Consolidation Zone

  • Price between $2690 and $2738 is the consolidation zone.
  • Avoid taking major positions until price breaks out of this range with strong momentum and volume.

5. Volume Analysis

  • Watch for volume spikes near key levels (e.g., $2692 or $2738).
  • Higher volume on breakouts signals strength and conviction in the move.

Updated Trade Plans

  1. Long Trade:
    • Entry: Above $2738.
    • Targets: $2758, $2805.1.
    • Stop-Loss: Below $2712.
  2. Short Trade:
    • Entry: Below $2690.
    • Targets: $2672, $2648.
    • Stop-Loss: Above $2712.
  3. Scalping Opportunity:
    • For quick trades, use the 50% retracement level ($2692) as an intraday pivot:
      • Buy near $2692 with targets of $2712 or higher.
      • Sell near $2712 with targets of $2692 or lower.

Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. It is for educational purposes only.