Gold Market Standard Deviation Report
Date: January 24, 2025,
Prepared by: Patrick MontesDeOca
Target Audience: Gold Market Analysts, Traders, and Investors
Market Overview
Gold futures (GGCJ25) are currently trading with a strong bullish bias, closing at $2,835, while key statistical and momentum levels suggest a mix of continuation and potential mean reversion. This report integrates VC PMI levels, statistical probability models, and key trend indicators for the upcoming week.
Key Trading Levels
Technical Levels | Price ($) | Probability Model Interpretation |
VCPMI Mean Level | 2,819.33 | Market closing above this level confirms bullish momentum. |
High S1 Resistance | 2,878.67 | 67% probability of testing resistance; potential reversal zone. |
High S2 Resistance | 2,922.33 | 33% probability of breaking above; momentum continuation if breached. |
B1 Support Zone | 2,775.67 | Expected buy zone, 72% probability of price stabilizing above. |
B2 Major Support | 2,716.33 | Strong institutional buy zone, 80% probability of mean reversion bounce. |
SMA & Probability Model
- 9-Day SMA: $2,727
- A close below this level would shift momentum to neutral.
- 90% S1 (Resistance): $2,874.30
- High-probability profit-taking zone for long positions.
- 90% B1 (Support): $2,781.60
- Critical re-entry point for buyers looking for continuation trades.
Mean Reversion & Probability Model Insights
- Upper Reversion Level: $2,922
- High resistance zone – Expect profit-taking and potential correction.
- Lower Reversion Level: $2,716
- Major buy zone – Strong institutional accumulation likely.
- Probability of Price Staying Between $2,781 – $2,874: 72%
- Market is expected to consolidate in this range before the next move.
- Probability of Breaking $2,922: 33%
- A breakout could trigger further upside momentum.
- Probability of Testing $2,716 Support: 28%
- Only likely in case of a strong reversal or economic shock.
Trading Strategy Recommendations
If Short:
- Target Profit-Taking: $2,874 – $2,922
- Monitor for reversals at the $2,922 resistance zone.
- Re-enter short positions on failure at $2,922, targeting $2,819 – $2,775.
If Long:
- Buy Dips Near: $2,781 – $2,716
- Take partial profits at: $2,874 – $2,922.
- If price stays above $2,922, adjust targets higher and trail stops.
Conclusion
Gold remains in a bullish trend, with $2,781–$2,874 being the most probable range for price action this week. A break above $2,922 could extend gains, while a pullback toward $2,716 presents an opportunity for buyers.
Stay cautious around resistance zones for potential reversals, and use VCPMI key levels to refine entries and exits.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading futures involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Ensure proper risk management strategies are in place before making trading decisions.