GLOBAL TRENDS WEEKLY

Gold Market Standard Deviation Report

Date: January 24, 2025,
Prepared by: Patrick MontesDeOca
Target Audience: Gold Market Analysts, Traders, and Investors

Market Overview

Gold futures (GGCJ25) are currently trading with a strong bullish bias, closing at $2,835, while key statistical and momentum levels suggest a mix of continuation and potential mean reversion. This report integrates VC PMI levels, statistical probability models, and key trend indicators for the upcoming week.


Key Trading Levels

Technical LevelsPrice ($)Probability Model Interpretation
VCPMI Mean Level2,819.33Market closing above this level confirms bullish momentum.
High S1 Resistance2,878.6767% probability of testing resistance; potential reversal zone.
High S2 Resistance2,922.3333% probability of breaking above; momentum continuation if breached.
B1 Support Zone2,775.67Expected buy zone, 72% probability of price stabilizing above.
B2 Major Support2,716.33Strong institutional buy zone, 80% probability of mean reversion bounce.

SMA & Probability Model

  • 9-Day SMA: $2,727
    • A close below this level would shift momentum to neutral.
  • 90% S1 (Resistance): $2,874.30
    • High-probability profit-taking zone for long positions.
  • 90% B1 (Support): $2,781.60
    • Critical re-entry point for buyers looking for continuation trades.

Mean Reversion & Probability Model Insights

  • Upper Reversion Level: $2,922
    • High resistance zone – Expect profit-taking and potential correction.
  • Lower Reversion Level: $2,716
    • Major buy zone – Strong institutional accumulation likely.
  • Probability of Price Staying Between $2,781 – $2,874: 72%
    • Market is expected to consolidate in this range before the next move.
  • Probability of Breaking $2,922: 33%
    • A breakout could trigger further upside momentum.
  • Probability of Testing $2,716 Support: 28%
    • Only likely in case of a strong reversal or economic shock.

Trading Strategy Recommendations

If Short:

  • Target Profit-Taking: $2,874 – $2,922
  • Monitor for reversals at the $2,922 resistance zone.
  • Re-enter short positions on failure at $2,922, targeting $2,819 – $2,775.

If Long:

  • Buy Dips Near: $2,781 – $2,716
  • Take partial profits at: $2,874 – $2,922.
  • If price stays above $2,922, adjust targets higher and trail stops.

Conclusion

Gold remains in a bullish trend, with $2,781–$2,874 being the most probable range for price action this week. A break above $2,922 could extend gains, while a pullback toward $2,716 presents an opportunity for buyers.

Stay cautious around resistance zones for potential reversals, and use VCPMI key levels to refine entries and exits.


Risk Disclaimer: Trading futures involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Ensure proper risk management strategies are in place before making trading decisions.