GLOBAL TRENDS WEEKLY

/ES Futures VC PMI Update with Expanded Gann Time Cycles & Square of 9

GDX Mean Reversion Trading

Date: August 1, 2025,
Prepared by: Patrick MontesDeOca
Target Audience: Gold Market Analysts, Traders, and Investors

Summary:

The S&P E-mini Futures (/ES) have entered a highly reactive phase.

A close back above 6325 (VC PMI pivot) would trigger a mean reversion buy signal.

On the downside, if 6180 fails to hold, expect rapid price discovery toward 6096, and potentially 5955, as outlined by harmonic support from Square of 9.

The current phase is a textbook example of time and price convergence.

The S&P E-mini Futures (/ES) have entered a highly reactive phase, marked by accelerated volatility and steep liquidation pressure. The top registered on Wednesday at 6468.5 coincided with a Gann time cycle window—a classic mid-week reversal zone—suggesting time and price had reached a point of equilibrium and exhaustion. The subsequent collapse was fast and sharp, affirming the timing signal.

Gann Time Cycles:

  • Midweek cycle turn (Wednesday, July 30 – August 1) aligns with 45-degree Gann cycle arc, a key harmonic point often associated with trend inflections.
  • The prior cycle began on July 24th, running approximately 6 trading days—consistent with a short-term Gann swing cycle.
  • Current time window extends into August 2–5 as a potential reactive bottoming zone, particularly with price testing VC PMI’s Buy 1 levels (6180–6096).
  • If this support confirms, expect a countertrend rally into the next Gann window projected around August 7–9 (90-degree cycle from July 8 low).

Square of 9 Price Projections:

Using 6468.5 (swing high) as a reference:

  • 180-degree rotation (half cycle) aligns with approx. 6250–6235, which matches closely with current low at 6239.5. This zone is considered a harmonic retracement support.
  • 270-degree projection aligns with 6120–6100, converging with Buy 2 Weekly (6096). This is the final major support within the current VC PMI structure.
  • A full 360-degree rotation projects to 5955–5980, a potential extreme washout target if the lower BUY 2 level fails.

These levels are not arbitrary—they are based on time-price symmetry derived from W.D. Gann’s Square of 9 principle, where key price turns tend to align with 90°, 180°, 270°, and 360° moves from significant highs or lows.

Market Structure Outlook:

  • A close back above 6325 (VC PMI pivot) would trigger a mean reversion buy signal.
  • Next resistance above is 6345 (Sell 1) and 6427–6554 (Sell 2 range)—aligned with Square of 9 90°-180° rotations upward from current support.
  • On the downside, if 6180 fails to hold, expect rapid price discovery toward 6096, and potentially 5955, as outlined by harmonic support from Square of 9.

Summary:

The current phase is a textbook example of time and price convergence. Gann time cycles have aligned with a structural top midweek, and the breakdown has landed price near key harmonic Square of 9 support at 6235–6180. A reversal from here would validate the Gann cycle bottom, while failure opens a broader time cycle toward August 7–9 as a potential secondary low.

We are at a Gann-defined time-price pressure point. The next 1–2 sessions will reveal whether the market finds support to initiate a recovery—or if a deeper time cycle low is still forming.

TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.